Research desk
Jobs, inflation, wages and rates, read for what they do to household formation, rent collections and delinquency. The desk publishes an original briefing every morning, and every one that carries this tag collects here.
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Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year at 6.95% for the week ending September 17. Daily and live trackers ran near 7.2%. The gap is a survey lag, and underwriting off the headline understates your debt service by about 30 basis points.
Read the briefingConcessions now run on 43.5% of listings across the 50 largest metros, up 3.1 points in a year, with 18 markets above half. The advertised rent is no longer the price — and Census says the rental vacancy rate's latest annual move is not statistically significant.
Read the briefingAugust Census data shows apartment completions down 35.7% year over year, a statistically significant drop, while permits for 5+ unit buildings rose 9.4%. The widely reported 22.5% plunge in starts carries a margin of error of plus or minus 24.9 points.
Read the briefingThe Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, and 16 of 18 officials project a higher rate by year-end. Floating-rate debt feels it first; refinancing and values follow a 10-year Treasury that crossed 5% this week. What to do with loans, renewals and budgets this week.
Read the briefingPublished estimates put a turn at roughly $4,000. Divide the annual dollars an increase earns by that number and you get the move-out risk it can afford to add — the one calculation that should settle most renewal offers in a flat market.
Read the briefingThe Fed meets Sept. 15-16 with markets braced for the first hike since 2023 and mortgage rates at a 15-month high of 6.76%. Sidelined buyers are a retention tailwind, but a record seller surplus means unsold homes can become rental competition. What to do before Wednesday.
Read the briefingRealPage shows rents up 0.9% year over year and Yardi Matrix logs its first positive August in years, but 1.2 million units still in lease-up cap growth. Renewal pricing this fall depends on your submarket's lease-up share and concession rate, not the national line.
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