One in five working-age renters told the Urban Institute their household paid rent late or short at some point in the past year. The 20.0% share in the December 2025 survey is up from 16.5% a year earlier and is the highest the survey has recorded. The jump came mostly from middle-income renters, not the lowest-income ones, a group that includes many households who meet common income criteria.
What happened
The Urban Institute released a brief on September 23 based on its Well-Being and Basic Needs Survey, a nationally representative survey last fielded in December 2025. It asks adults whether, in the past 12 months, their household failed to pay the full rent or paid late because it could not afford to. Multifamily Dive covered the release the same day.
The headline numbers, all for renters ages 18 to 64:
- Rent: 20.0% reported a late or partial rent payment in 2025, up from 16.5% in 2024. Urban calls it the first statistically significant year-over-year change since the survey began in 2017.
- Middle income: among renters earning 200% to 400% of the federal poverty level, the share rose from 14.3% to 21.6%. Urban puts that band at $31,300 to $62,600 for a single adult and $53,300 to $106,600 for a family of three.
- Lower income: renters under 200% of the poverty level remained the most likely to struggle, at 27.8%.
- Utilities: 20.7% could not pay their full heating and electricity bills, about the same as 2023 and 2024 but higher than every year from 2019 through 2022.
- Behind right now: 7.8% said they were one or more months behind on rent at the time of the survey, and 6.0% were behind and very or somewhat worried about eviction in the next three months.
It is not only one region. The South saw the sharpest move, to 23.3% in 2025 from 15–17% in each year from 2022 to 2024. The Northeast rose to 19.8% from 15.9%, and the Midwest held at 19.7%. The West, at 15.7%, was not statistically higher than any prior year except 2020.
One of the authors, Kathryn Reynolds, told Multifamily Dive that rental insecurity is "creeping into these higher income levels".
Why it matters for property managers
This is survey data, not your ledger, and the brief acknowledges conflicting data. Urban notes that CFPB data show a decrease in various measures of rent delinquency and that eviction filings have held steady or declined. Treat it as an early warning, not proof that your delinquency is about to spike.
The warning is still worth heeding for three reasons.
The stress is reaching middle-income renters. Many households in the 200% to 400% band meet common income criteria. If that group's missed-payment rate jumped by about half in a year, some of your delinquency risk may sit among residents you already approved, not only among new applicants.
Utility strain is widespread too. One in five renters could not fully pay heat and electricity. If you bill back utilities, missed bill-backs are worth watching alongside rent.
Losing a resident costs more than it used to. RealPage reports concessions on 15.4% of stabilized units in August at an average 11% of asking rent, or about 5.7 weeks free on a 12-month lease, with same-store effective rent growth of 0.9%. With rent growth that thin and concessions that common, a payment plan that keeps a paying resident in place will often beat a turnover.
What to do this week
This is general information, not legal advice. Late fees, notice periods, payment plans and utility billing are governed by state and local law. Confirm your approach with local counsel before changing policy.
- Run delinquency by first-time-late. Pull a list of residents with no late payments in the prior 12 months who have paid late or short in the last 90 days. Base it on payment behavior only, not on income or any other resident trait.
- Write down a payment-plan policy and apply it the same way to everyone. Set who qualifies, the maximum term, and what happens if a plan is missed. Handling it case by case invites Fair Housing risk. A written, consistent policy reduces it.
- Reach out before the second miss. A short, neutral note after the first late payment that lists the options (a payment plan, a due-date change if your state allows one, assistance referrals) costs less than a filing.
- Keep a utility-assistance referral sheet ready. List your state's energy-assistance office (the federal program is LIHEAP), the local 211 line, and any utility hardship programs. Hand it to anyone behind on a utility bill-back.
- Price renewals against turnover, not the market headline. Compare the proposed increase for each resident with the cost of a vacancy, a turn and any concession on the replacement lease (RealPage's August average was 11% of asking rent where one was offered).
- Do not tighten screening as a reflex. Raising income ratios may not fix a problem that is rising among middle-income renters, and source-of-income rules in many states and cities limit what you can require. Apply your written criteria consistently and check your local rules first.
What we're watching
- Whether ledgers confirm the survey. Urban points to CFPB delinquency data and eviction filings moving the other way, though it also cites a tracker of independent landlords showing a sharp rise in late payments in 2025. If fourth-quarter delinquency in rent-roll data turns up, the survey was early rather than wrong.
- The next survey round. Urban says it will show whether the upward trend continued in 2026.
- Concessions after peak leasing season. RealPage says concession usage narrowed for a third month while the average discount barely moved. Deeper discounts this winter would make holding current residents more valuable.
- Federal rental assistance. Urban flags proposed work requirements and time limits in HUD-assisted housing that could reduce access for some of the roughly 5 million assisted renter households. Voucher-heavy portfolios should watch whether these are finalized.