Research desk
Where mortgage and financing rates went, why they moved, and what a rate print does to acquisitions, refinancing and the renter-versus-buyer split. The desk publishes an original briefing every morning, and every one that carries this tag collects here.
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Census data show apartment starts in large buildings fell 25.9% year over year in September while pending home sales dropped 11.3%. The pipeline is thinning and renters are staying put, but Class C and real wages are weak spots.
Read the briefingRedfin's median sale price fell 0.1% year over year to $389,601 as pending sales hit a record low. Fewer residents will leave to buy, single-family rentals may face new competition, and selling a rental now favors the buyer.
Read the briefingThe Fed held rates on Oct. 28, but two officials wanted a hike, inflation remains elevated and the 10-year Treasury is near 5%. Borrowing costs aren't falling. Stress-test debt, price renewals for retention and budget 2027 as if relief comes late.
Read the briefingGasoline drove September's 3.7% inflation, while rent of primary residence rose just 0.2%. The real risk for landlords is the Fed and 7.5% mortgage rates.
Read the briefingRealPage put the apartment cap rate at 5.39% against a 4.71% 10-year yield in August, the thinnest cushion in its 2008–2026 comparison. With 13% of multifamily mortgages maturing in 2026, NOI is the lever owners still control.
Read the briefingFreddie Mac's 30-year rate reached 7.40%, the highest since 2023. Zillow says rents are up 2.7%, and its chief economist says marginal buyers are finding renting too good to pass up. Here is how to use that at renewal.
Read the briefingThe Fed's September minutes say most participants expect another increase by year end, depending on data. Mortgage rates hit 7.49% in the latest weekly survey. Here is how to plan refinances and renewals.
Read the briefingTrepp's September data put multifamily CMBS delinquencies at 8.04%, above the 8.02% overall rate for the first time since Covid. Here is what to check before your next refinance.
Read the briefingRealtor.com says 20.8% of listings cut prices in September, a four-year high, as rates topped 7% and homes under contract fell 4.1%. Renters may stay longer, but asking rents are still down 0.9%, and buying a rental just got easier to negotiate.
Read the briefingPayrolls rose just 29,000 in September and unemployment hit 4.2%. Markets lean toward an October Fed hold, but rent growth is under 1% and mortgage rates are near 7.3%.
Read the briefingThe 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Sept. 28 and Freddie Mac's 30-year rate hit 7.03%. Owners with loans, rate caps or IO periods ending soon should rerun refinance math, price caps, and push renewals early.
Read the briefingFreddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year at 6.95% for the week ending September 17. Daily and live trackers ran near 7.2%. The gap is a survey lag, and underwriting off the headline understates your debt service by about 30 basis points.
Read the briefingThe Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, and 16 of 18 officials project a higher rate by year-end. Floating-rate debt feels it first; refinancing and values follow a 10-year Treasury that crossed 5% this week. What to do with loans, renewals and budgets this week.
Read the briefingThe Fed meets Sept. 15-16 with markets braced for the first hike since 2023 and mortgage rates at a 15-month high of 6.76%. Sidelined buyers are a retention tailwind, but a record seller surplus means unsold homes can become rental competition. What to do before Wednesday.
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