National apartment rents have turned positive for the year. RealPage says same-store effective asking rents rose 0.9% year over year as of the third quarter of 2026, the first positive annual reading since the second quarter of 2025, while occupancy held at 95.4%. Apartment List's September data points the same way from a softer base. For operators heading into renewal season, the national number matters less than which side of the split your market is on.
What happened
RealPage's third-quarter update shows demand catching up to a cooling supply wave. Renters absorbed nearly 304,800 conventional apartments in the year ending in the third quarter, against nearly 318,000 completions. The gap between demand and supply is now about 13,000 units, the narrowest since late 2015. Completions are running roughly 46% below the late-2024 peak of nearly 588,000 units.
The quarter itself was softer than the annual totals suggest. Renters absorbed about 69,800 units from July through September, which RealPage calls a modest showing for what is usually one of the strongest quarters, and below the decade average for the season.
Occupancy averaged 95.4% in the third quarter, unchanged from the second quarter and 10 basis points above a year earlier, the first positive year-over-year change in a year. Rents rose 0.8% in the third quarter after 1.8% in the first half, bringing the average effective rent to $1,915. Concession use has faded a bit but remains widespread: roughly 22.7% of apartments were offering them, with the average concession at 7.5%.
Apartment List measures a different thing, a national median rent across its marketplace, and its numbers are softer. The median fell 0.1% in September to $1,388 and is still down 0.4% from a year ago. But the direction matches: annual growth has been trending up for five straight months after bottoming at -1.6% in April. And this September's dip was smaller than usual: the average September decline was -0.5% from 2022 to 2025 and -0.3% from 2017 to 2019.
Vacancy is also past its peak in that data. Apartment List's index for stabilized properties hit 7.3% in February and fell to 7% in September, still above the 2017 to 2019 average of 6.4%, a level it says is more than a year away at the current pace. Units leased in September sat on the market for an average of 34 days, up two days from August.
The split by market
The national average hides a wide range. In RealPage's data:
- Bay Area: San Francisco rents rose 14.3% over the year and 5.6% in the third quarter alone; San Jose and Oakland rose between 6% and 9%.
- East Coast and Midwest: Virginia Beach rose 6.5% with 97.7% occupancy, the highest among the 50 largest markets, and New York rose 4%. The Midwest led all regions at 2%, with Milwaukee, Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit among the stronger performers.
- Sun Belt: The South was the only region with annual rent cuts and the only one with occupancy below 95%. San Antonio fell 3.7% with occupancy at 93.1%, and Denver, Charlotte, Tampa and Houston fell between about 2% and 3%.
- Turning markets: Phoenix and Austin saw annual cuts narrow to less than 2%, and both posted rent growth from July to September.
Why it matters for property managers
Renewal pricing should follow your submarket, not the headline. A 0.9% national gain is a small number made of very different parts. An owner in Milwaukee and an owner in San Antonio should not be sending the same renewal letter.
Vacancy is still expensive. At RealPage's $1,915 average effective rent and Apartment List's 34-day average time on market, a turnover costs an estimated $2,140 in lost rent (our arithmetic: 34 days of a $1,915 monthly rent) before make-ready, leasing fees or concessions, and actual vacant days can run longer than list-to-lease time. That is the number to weigh against a renewal increase.
The off-season is here. Apartment List notes that owners typically offer modest discounts in fall and winter to fill vacant units. A smaller-than-usual dip is a good sign, but it is still a dip. Expect slower leasing through the first quarter.
Concessions are the lever to watch. With about 22.7% of apartments still offering concessions, competition for new leases has not gone away. In markets where occupancy is already above 95%, there may be room to trim them. In heavy-supply markets, pulling them too early can cost more in vacancy than it saves.
What to do this week
- Pull your trade-outs. Compare new-lease and renewal rents over the past 90 days to the prior lease, property by property, and line them up against your market's direction in the data above.
- Set renewal increases by submarket. Where occupancy is high and rents are rising, test a modest increase. Where your market is still cutting rents, price renewals against your own turnover cost rather than a target number.
- Do the turnover math for each expiring lease. Daily rent times your actual days vacant, plus make-ready and leasing costs. Use it to set the floor below which you would rather renew.
- Review every active concession. Note what it costs, when it was added and whether the property still needs it. Retire the ones that no longer move leads.
- Budget for the seasonal slowdown. Build a softer fourth and first quarter into 2027 budgets so owners are not surprised by a few slow months.
Rules on renewal notices and rent increases vary by state and city. Check your local requirements before sending notices.
What we're watching
- Fourth-quarter absorption, to see whether demand keeps pace as fewer new units deliver.
- Apartment List's vacancy index, and whether it keeps moving toward its pre-pandemic average.
- Phoenix and Austin, where rents grew this summer after a long stretch of cuts.
- Concession use, the first place a tightening market usually shows up.