Apartment concessions drop to 14.5% of units, but discounts stay at 15-year highs

Fewer apartments are offering move-in deals, but the deals that remain are as rich as they have been in more than 15 years. RealPage says concessions were offered on 14.5% of stabilized U.S. units in September 2026, a fourth straight monthly decline, while the average discount ticked up to 11.1%, or about 5.8 weeks free on a 12-month lease. For operators, the signal is to pull back on how many units get a deal before cutting how big the deal is.

What happened

RealPage's September numbers show concession use down 0.9 points from August and 2.5 points from 17% in May 2026, the lowest reading since September 2025. The average discount went the other way, edging up from 10.9% in May to 11.1% in September. RealPage calls that consistent with operators trimming the number of discounted units before trimming the discount itself, and it says it is "still too soon to call a national turning point."

The pullback was broad across asset classes. Per RealPage:

• Class C usage fell 1.4 points to 18.1%; the average discount held at 11.1%.
• Class B fell 0.8 points to 13%; its average discount rose 0.2 points to 10.8%.
• Class A slipped 0.5 points to 12.5%; its average discount edged up to 11.5%.
• Efficiencies (studios) were the most heavily discounted floorplan, with concessions on 17.1% of units at an average 12.2%, more than six weeks free.

Regionally, the South fell 1.4 points to 19.1%, still the highest of the four regions. The West fell 0.9 points to 13%, the Northeast slipped to 10.4%, and the Midwest was the only region to rise, up 0.2 points to 8.8%. Among the 50 largest markets, Austin led concession use at 33.1%, followed by San Antonio at 31.7% and Denver at 30.3%. The sharpest pullbacks were in Texas and Florida: the five Texas markets in the top 50 averaged a 2.2-point decline, versus 0.5 points for the other 45, and use fell 5.4 points to 15.4% in Orlando and 3.2 points to 12.5% in Miami.

One likely factor: new supply has thinned. RealPage counts a little over 82,000 completions in the third quarter, the highest quarter of 2026 but the smallest third quarter since 2019 and about half the roughly 160,000-unit peak of this cycle. Year-to-date deliveries are about 231,000 units, 27% below the same period of 2025. Meanwhile RealPage reports annual absorption of 323,106 units, slightly above annual completions of 317,966, with occupancy averaging 95.2% and same-store effective rents up 1.5% year over year.

Not every data set agrees

Apartment List, which measures something different, sees concessions still spreading. Its new concession rate counts the share of properties advertising a discount worth at least one free month, and it put that at 31.3% of multifamily properties in September 2026, up from 25.4% a year earlier.

Those two numbers are not in conflict so much as measuring different things. RealPage tracks the share of stabilized units carrying a concession; Apartment List tracks properties advertising one worth a month or more. A building can keep a "one month free" banner up while discounting fewer units behind it. Read together, they say large deals are still common in the market, but operators are getting choosier about where they apply them.

Why it matters for property managers

• Your comp set still has big offers. With the average discount matching the deepest in more than 15 years, a prospect comparing your unit with a lease-up down the street may still be weighing five or six weeks free.
• Blanket specials are becoming the exception. If the market is cutting the number of discounted units, an across-the-board special can give away rent you no longer need to give.
• Geography matters more than the national number. A Midwest property facing 8.8% regional usage is in a different negotiation than one in Austin at 33.1%.
• Supply relief is real but uneven. RealPage says Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta each saw more than 3,000 completions from July through September, so concession pressure in those metros may last longer.

What to do this week

1. Audit every active concession. List each one by unit type, days vacant and expiration date. Kill or shorten any that is not tied to a unit that has sat longer than your target days-on-market.
2. Target the deal, don't spread it. Move from property-wide specials to unit-level offers on aged inventory, hard-to-lease floorplans or stacks with lower traffic. Efficiencies are where RealPage shows the deepest average discount.
3. Price in net effective terms. Compare your net effective rent, not your asking rent, against two or three direct competitors. A higher face rent with a targeted credit can beat a lower face rent with no flexibility.
4. Use concessions on renewals sparingly. With occupancy near 95.2% nationally, a modest renewal credit for a strong resident can cost less than a turn, but a standing renewal discount is hard to take back.
5. Check your lease language. Make sure each concession's terms (how it is applied, what happens on early termination) are written into the lease or addendum, and confirm with local counsel how your state treats concession recapture.

What we're watching

• Whether discounts finally shrink. RealPage says a sustained decline in both usage and discount size would be stronger evidence that fundamentals are rebalancing. One more month of falling usage with flat discounts would not settle it.
• Apartment List's next read. If its property-level rate keeps rising while RealPage's unit-level usage falls, that gap is worth tracking market by market.
• Fourth-quarter deliveries. Two straight quarters of rising completions are a modest rebound, per RealPage. A larger fourth-quarter number in the Sun Belt would slow the pullback there.
• Seasonal softness. Apartment List's data shows concessions tend to ramp up during the winter, which can push operators back toward specials on aging vacancies.