--- title: "RealPage forecasts 2.4% rent growth by Q3 2027: plan 2027 renewals" description: "RealPage expects national rents to rise about 2.4% from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027 as the supply-demand gap narrows to its smallest since 2015. Here is how to plan by market." date: 2026-10-13 updated: 2026-10-13 author: "Proppely Research Desk" kind: NEWS_BRIEF tags: ["rent-growth", "multifamily", "vacancy", "economy"] reading_minutes: 4 word_count: 805 canonical: "https://www.proppely.com/insights/realpage-2027-rent-forecast-2-4-percent-renewal-plan" html: "https://www.proppely.com/insights/realpage-2027-rent-forecast-2-4-percent-renewal-plan" feed: "https://proppely.com/insights/feed.xml" license: "Free to read and cite with a link to the canonical URL." sources: - title: "RealPage: Cooling Jobs and a Firmer Rent Outlook for 2027" url: "https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/" publisher: "RealPage" published: "2026-10-11" - title: "RealPage: U.S. Apartment Demand Closes in on a Slowing Supply Wave in 3rd Quarter" url: "https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/" publisher: "RealPage" published: "2026-10-05" - title: "Redfin: U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low" url: "https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-sink-rates/" publisher: "Redfin" published: "2026-10-11" --- # RealPage forecasts 2.4% rent growth by Q3 2027: plan 2027 renewals > RealPage expects national rents to rise about 2.4% from Q4 2026 to Q3 2027 as the supply-demand gap narrows to its smallest since 2015. Here is how to plan by market. ## Key takeaways - RealPage forecasts national effective rents rising about 2.4% from 4Q 2026 to 3Q 2027; this is a forecast, not a result. - The gap between apartment demand and completions is 13,000 units, the narrowest since late 2015, per RealPage. - Markets differ widely: San Francisco and Milwaukee are forecast at 3.8%, while Houston is forecast at 0.5%. - About 22.7% of apartments still offered concessions in the third quarter, so pricing power varies by submarket. RealPage's economists [forecast national effective apartment rents to rise about 2.4%](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/) from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the third quarter of 2027. That would be a clear step up from the [0.9% year-over-year gain](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/) the same firm measured for the third quarter of 2026. It is a forecast, not a result, and it rests on a supply wave that is running out. ## What happened On October 12, RealPage published its [third-quarter market forecast](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/). Its headline: national effective rents should rise about 2.4% over the four quarters from 4Q 2026 to 3Q 2027. The firm's [October 6 data update](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/) supplies the backdrop. Year-ending third-quarter demand reached nearly 304,800 conventional apartments, while completions reached nearly 318,000, about 46% below the late-2024 peak of nearly 588,000. The gap between the two is [just 13,000 units, the narrowest since late 2015](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/). Occupancy [averaged 95.4% in the third quarter](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/), and about [22.7% of apartments still offered a concession](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/), averaging 7.5%. So the market is balanced, not tight. The forecast is a bet that new supply keeps shrinking while demand holds. The spread across markets is wide. RealPage's forecast has [San Francisco and Milwaukee at 3.8% and Phoenix at 3.7%](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/). About [64% of the top 50 markets fall between 2% and 2.9%](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), including Dallas, Austin, Chicago, Boston and Seattle. [Seven markets are near 1%](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), including New York, Washington, DC, Fort Worth and Atlanta, and [Houston (0.5%) and San Antonio (0.8%) are lowest](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/). No top-50 market is projected to see declines. New supply is not gone. RealPage expects [about 320,000 apartments to be delivered over the next four quarters](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), with Dallas the largest at just over 20,000. The forecast comes with caveats. Payrolls [added 152,000 jobs in the quarter, about 51,000 a month](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), with September at [29,000](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), and [average hourly earnings grew 3% year over year](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), down from 3.5% at midyear. Rent forecasts depend on renters keeping their jobs and paychecks. ## Why it matters for property managers **The pricing power is shifting, slowly.** Concessions are still common. But a narrow demand-supply gap suggests concessions may be easier to pull back in markets where deliveries are fading. The firm's own numbers show regions diverging: in the third quarter the [Midwest led with rents up 2% year over year](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/), while the [South was the only region with annual rent cuts](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/) and the only one with occupancy below 95%. **One national number hides very different local stories.** A manager with units in Phoenix and Atlanta is looking at two separate renewal strategies, because the forecast for those markets differs by more than two points. **Renters are not leaving the rental pool quickly.** Redfin reports pending home sales [fell 4% month over month in September](https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-sink-rates/), the biggest monthly drop in more than three years, and that the weekly average mortgage rate [reached 7.28% at the end of September](https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-sink-rates/), the highest in three years. High ownership costs tend to support renewals. That is an inference, not something either source states. ## What to do this week 1. **Sort your portfolio by market band.** Put each property in RealPage's published band: the 3% range (nine markets, led by San Francisco, Milwaukee and Phoenix), the 2%–2.9% middle, and the ~1% group. Set 2027 renewal targets per band, not one number for everyone. 2. **Check your supply pipeline.** For each property, look up deliveries within three miles over the next four quarters. A forecast built on thin national supply says little if a 300-unit lease-up opens next door. 3. **Start trimming concessions where occupancy is above 95%.** Test a smaller offer on a few units before you change the whole property. 4. **Model renewals at 2% and at 3%.** Compare your budget at both ends, and check what happens to cash flow if payroll growth stalls and renewals slow. 5. **Review your 2027 budget assumptions.** If your plan assumes flat rents, ask whether that is a deliberate choice or a leftover from this year's softness. 6. **Document your pricing method.** If you use rent-setting software, keep records of how recommendations are generated and who approves them. Rules on rent-setting software vary by jurisdiction and are subject to ongoing litigation and legislation, so confirm current requirements with local counsel. ## What we're watching - **The next jobs report.** Payroll growth has swung from [-10,000 in July to +133,000 in August](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/) to 29,000 in September. A weak trend would put the forecast at risk. - **Whether completions keep falling.** The [13,000-unit gap](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/) is narrow, but the forecast still expects roughly 320,000 deliveries. - **The Federal Reserve.** RealPage notes the FOMC [raised the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4% in September](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/) and that its median projection points to [a rate near 4.1% by year-end](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/). Higher rates keep financing costs high and could slow new starts. - **Redfin's next sales data**, to see whether more would-be buyers remain renters. *This is general information, not legal or financial advice. Rents and rules vary by market and jurisdiction.* ## FAQ **What is the 2027 national rent growth forecast?** RealPage forecasts national effective rents rising about [2.4%](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/) from the fourth quarter of 2026 to the third quarter of 2027. It is a projection and depends on jobs and supply. **Which markets are forecast to grow fastest?** RealPage's forecast has [San Francisco and Milwaukee at 3.8% and Phoenix at 3.7%](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), while Houston is lowest at 0.5%. **How much new supply is coming?** RealPage expects [about 320,000 apartments to be delivered over the next four quarters](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/), about 85% of them in the top 50 markets. ## Sources 1. [RealPage: Cooling Jobs and a Firmer Rent Outlook for 2027](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/apartment-market-forecast-3q26/) — RealPage 2. [RealPage: U.S. Apartment Demand Closes in on a Slowing Supply Wave in 3rd Quarter](https://www.realpage.com/analytics/3q-2026-us-data-update/) — RealPage 3. [Redfin: U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low](https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-sink-rates/) — Redfin --- Published by the Proppely Research Desk. 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